DECLASSIFIED fact is doubtless a disappointment to Mora, since it was generally thought that the Vanguardia had increased in strength to the point where it would be able to elect two deputies in San José. Doubtless one reason for the Vanguardia failure to gain additional strength has been that party close identification in the past two years with an unpopular Government. While there are as yet no indications that the Vanguardia will sever relations with the Administration, Mora must certainly be giving some consideration to the possibility that his party would prosper more by returning to its former role of independence.
The midterm elections in Costa Rica are customarily looked upon as a kind of proving ground for the presidential eleotions two years thereafter. It is perhaps still too early to say with finality just whose presidential ambitions were furthered and whose received a setback on February 10. There are indications, however, that the results did nothing to improve the chances of either ex President Calderón Guardia or erPresident León Cortés. It was predicted in many quarters before the elections that Dr. Calderón Guàrdia was merely waiting for a governmental landslide to return to Costa Rica and have his election practically assured. Since no such thing occurred in the eleotions the opposition has been gleefully proclaiming the fact that Dr. Calderón Guardia is now eliminated as a presidential possibility. While there may be. a degree of wishful thinking in this hypothesis it nevertheloso seems true that the ex President is in a far less favorable position now than he was prior to the elections. Many observera also feel, with a like but inverted degree of wishful thinking, that León Cortés has lost considerable ground. It is true that Cortés himself did not run for any office, and in point of fast he took less part in the political campaign than did oither of the other two opposition leaders, Peña and Ulate. Moreover, the Government was able to elect two deputies in Cortést homo province, Alajuela, whereas in the 1944 eleotions the opposition made a olean sweep in that province (it should be noted, however, that this may also be attributed to the faot that in 1944 the opposition controlled the electoral machinery of Alajuela whereas in the recently past elections all parties had a member on all electoral boards. In confirmation of the foregoing there has already been a small amount of discussion of the possibility of a compromise candidate for the 1948 elections. This does not, of course.
mean that any of the present aspirants have renounced their ambitions as yet, but it seems fair to say that the possibilit for a compromise of some kind (which is desired by many Costa Ricans, who see in a Cortés Calderón elash the likelihood of serious trouble) is greatly increased.
Respectfully yours, Tor the Ambassador: Lig LI. Wote Livingston Watrous Third Secretary 800 LDWatrous: em Copies to: Managua, Guatemala, San Salvador, and Degucigalpa.